Looking Back/Looking Forward – Starting Pitching

What if you could re-write geological history and stack Mt. McKinley (the United States’ highest point at  20,320 feet) right next door to Death Valley (the United States’  lowest point at -282 feet)?  Well, what you would have is a fairly accurate cross-section portrayal of the Royals’ starting rotation – a gigantic peak (Zach Greinke) that quickly descends into the depths of hell (the rest of the starting pitchers that KC turned to in 2009).  Might the Royals at least discover a Mt. Hood, Mt. Rainier, or Taum Sauk Mountain in the fold for 2010? …

2009 – Greinke achieved maximum lift-off right out of the gates in ‘09 and, although he slowed a tad, he still put up a Cy Young-worthy season.  Along with the Jedi’s, the Nerds, and the Killer Tomato’s, former-GM Allard Baird had one of the most enjoyable “Revenge’s” in history.  His original selection of Greinke out of high school finally paid off and made good on years’ of Baird assertions.

As for the rest of the rotation, the first words that come to mind are “mess,” “debacle,” and “miserable.”  Presumed number-2 starter Gil Meche was doing well until a mid-June complete game, 132-pitch effort seemed to sap him of all value.  He battled back/shoulder injuries and consistency all season before finally getting shut-down at the end of August.

Brian Bannister, Luke Hochever, and Kyle Davies all had their moments, but they were far outweighed by terrible pitching lines.  Things were in such disarray that “dead weight” guys like Sidney Ponson and Bruce Chen got a combined 18 starts.

A bright spot did emerge in September when Robinson Tejeda joined the starting five and immediately showcased a fastball that could set down hitters (32 Ks in 31.2 innings as a starter), but he also struggled with his control (20 walks).

Money Ball – Greinke will see a big leap in compensation as he enters the 2nd year of his four-year contract.  He’ll go from 3.75 to 7.25.  Meche jumps up another million bucks and will make 12-million this season and the same in 2011.  Hochevar is due about 1.5 million.   Bannister should be in the two-million range with Davies looking at a slight uptick to the 1.5 million dollar level.  Tejeda could enjoy a doubling in pay to up near an even one million bucks.  Overall, the six top starting possibilities will be in line to earn a combined total of right around 25.5 million dollars.

Statistically Speaking – Greinke finished the year wtih 242 whiffs in 229.1 innings, while also holding an ERA that was less than half the league average (2.16 vs. 4.46). He becomes just the eighth pitcher since 1901 to pull off the feat.  The others are Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Dwight Gooden, Ron Guidry, Bob Gibson, Pete Alexander and Walter Johnson.  Kudos to Sam Mellinger of the KC Star for the tidbit.

2010 - Greinke, Meche, and Hochevar should all be a part of the starting rotation when the team leaves Arizona in late-March.  Bannister, Davies, and Tejeda will compete for the final two spots.  The early favorites are Bannister and Tejeda.  As usual, after Greinke, no on that list is a threat to achieve more than 10 or 11 wins

Free Agency - If the market completely dissolves, the team may get interested in a veteran name.  Still, it would have to be at a very low price point as part of a one or two-year deal.  They could take a stab at guys with injury histories.  Possibilities there include Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, and Bartolo Colon.

Down the Road - Southpaw Mike Montgomery might be ready to help out by 2011.  He had a dominating year at Bulrington and Wilmington, and frankly, he might have become one of the better minor league arms in baseball.  He, along with top draft picks, Aaron Crow and  Tim Mehlville, form an impressive trio that any organization would want.  Crow could make a late-2010 impact since he is easily the furthest along.  Kelvin Herrera (yet to turn 20) and Daniel Duffy would be the fourth and fifth top names.  It’s doubtful if any will make a big impact next season, but I will give credit to the front office and their focus on piling up so many young arms.

Positional Strength – 5 (almost purely because of Greinke’s overwhelming abilities)