Looking Back/Looking Forward – Relief Pitching

In an eerily similar spot as the rotation, KC features a top-of-line hammer that 90% of the teams in baseball would take without hesitation.  And, just like the starting five, the Royals are extremely thin after their stud.  Zach Greinke and Joakim Soria are not all that different.  Unfortunately, both All-Star’s are surrounded by a lot of filth that mutes their true value.  Over the past few seasons, the franchise has mixed-and-matched in the ‘pen.  It’s looking like more of the same in 2010 …

2009 - Soria was again the ninth inning option, but he saw more and more work that asked him to register more than the usual three outs.  The closer entered the eighth inning of games 12 times in 2009.  Such an occurrence happened six times in 2008.  The extra work and a DL-stint kept Soria’s overall numbers down as he fell from 42 to 30 saves while seeing his ERA jump from 1.60 to 2.21.  His WHIP also took a leap, but he still flashed elite form by lifting his strikeout-per-nine rate all the way to 11.7.

We’ve  spent so much time on Soria because spending any time on the rest of the 2009 Kansas City bullpen would be an investment right up there with buying GM stocks.  After making some well thought of moves in the winter of ‘09, the old adage of the difficulty in predicting relief performance from year-to-year reared its’ ugly head.  Kyle Farnsworth sputtered through most of the season; Juan Cruz tumbled back to earth after a pair of good years; and, when the names Roman Colon, Jamey Wright, John Bale, and Bruce Chen litter your big league ‘pen with regular work then it’s only logical that you deserve whatever you get.  And, what the Royals got was a combined 6-15 mark with a 4.81 ERA.

Money Ball – The team is really on the hook for just three guys – Soria ($3-million), Farnsworth ($4.5-million), and Cruz ($3.25-million) – that dent the payroll at a combined cost of nearly $11-million.  After that, the other three arms (whomever they may be) have contracts of relative little cost.

Statistically Speaking – Soria, who has always been known for his fastball and slider, showcased those pitchers less than ever in 2009.  A fastball came out of his hand about two out of every three pitches.  That was down nearly 6% from 2008.  He leaned on his slider just 5.2% which was down from 8.8% in ‘08.    On the flip side, he doubled the usage of his change-up.  Right rotator cuff problems throughout the year likely necessitated the changes.

2010 - Soria, Farnsworth, and Cruz are penciled in to return.  No doubt all three names will be mentioned in trade discussions, especially if GM Dayton Moore finds a contender willing to swallow the payout for either Farnsworth or Cruz.  In return, Moore would be looking for nothing more than peanuts and double-A prospects.  There have been whispers that Soria could be moved, but the team would have to be blown away by a pile of prospects to agree to such a move.  Right now, few teams in baseball are focusing or need an immediate upgrade for the ninth.

The rest of the relief corps will be filled out by a “Who’s Who” of baseball cards that land in the trash along with the wrapper they came in.  Colon and Bale will be competing in the spring fighting for some sort of spot.  Dusty Hughes, Victor Marte, and Carlos Rosa will compete, too, after decent efforts at the end of last year.

Free Agency – With the current organization-wide focus on trades over free agency and with a lack of current needs/money to spend here, it’s highly doubtful anyone will be added other than non-roster invitees.  If one of the “Big 3″ (term used quite loosely) is packaged there might be a veteran name added just so the youngsters don’t get put into spots they are clearly unprepared for.

Down the Road - If you have minor leaguers who are “bullpen prospects,” those arms are not prospects under any sensible usage of the term.

Positional Strength – 4